January 2024 Real Estate Update

Happy New Year to you! Despite the uncertainties and high interest rates experienced in 2023, it's noteworthy that these factors did not significantly hinder annual sales. Throughout the province, sales remained relatively stable during this period, albeit slightly down for our Cowichan Valley.  Many individuals are eagerly anticipating the upcoming 2024 Spring selling season. The anticipation of potential government actions, such as the speculated lowering of interest rates in 2024, is fostering a sense of optimism. Conversations with homeowners and colleagues alike reflect a positive outlook, suggesting a sense of enthusiasm for our approaching spring market.

Please don't hesitate to reach out with any questions that I may help with.

Warm regards, Paul

December Sales Stats for Single Family Homes in the Cowichan Valley

December saw a total of 26 single-family homes sold in the Cowichan Valley, down from the 29 that sold in December of last year, and down also from the 42 in the preceding month of November. There were 39 single-family homes listed on the market in December 2023 compared to 32 last year, up about 22%. There were 673 sales in our valley over the past 12 months representing a 11.2% decrease in comparison to the 711 sales in the 12 months ending in December of last year.

Average prices for single-family residential homes in December 2023 were at $772,611, up about 4.7% from $738,207 in December 2022, and down from November’s average of $788,506. The median price of a single-family home in the Cowichan Valley for the 12 months to date ending in December 2023 was $770,000.

In December, the active inventory of single-family homes on the market in the Cowichan Valley was 259, not much different from the 255 homes at the end of December 2022.

We had a 7.0-month supply of single-family homes on the market last month, while December 2022 had a 4.6-month supply. The average days to sell a single-family home in November was 38 days, down from 53 days last December.

For the year of 2023, unit sales were 673, down from the 711 for 2022. Sale prices year over year was down about 5.5% from $833,115 in 2022 to $786,935 in 2023.  It is interesting that in BC as a whole, from November 2022 through November 2023, the average residential sale was up 6.6%, as indicated in the BCREA release seen in my newsletter.

Condos & Townhouses

Condominium apartment sales in December saw 7 units sold, down from 10 sales in the previous month of November, and up 4 units from the 3 that sold last December. Condo apartments in the valley saw the average price for the 12 months ending in December 2023 at $331,832, down 7.7% for the same period as last year, $359,606.

The inventory of Townhomes on the market saw 8 sales in December, up from the 3 that sold in the month of November, and double the 4 sold last December, a 100% increase. Townhomes in the valley saw the average price for the 12 months to date ending in December at $564,572, down 7.9% from $612,976 for the same period last year.

BCREA - BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for October 2023 & Preliminary Estimate for November 2023

 The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for October is 1.3 per cent. For comparison, year-over-year growth in the Canadian economy in October was 0.9 per cent. The preliminary estimate for November’s year-over-year growth was up to 2.1 per cent. On a month-over-month basis, it appears that the output level has flattened for several months, similar to the trend in the wider Canadian economy. The average annual growth through the first 11 months of 2023 is estimated at 1.6 per cent.

The BCREA Nowcast now also includes regional growth trends, grouped into five regions: Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, Thompson Okanagan, Kootenay, and the North. Those regional nowcasts show slow growth across BC regions and early recovery in the North and the Kootenay following a contraction in output earlier in the year.

Download the full report (PDF)

Growth of provincial GDP is a key indicator of economic activity, but provincial GDP data is only available annually and with a considerable delay. That's why we developed the BCREA Nowcast – a tool for tracking monthly growth in the BC Economy. The Nowcast compiles monthly economic data into one easy to understand number, expressed as the year-over-year growth in the BC economy.

As the underlying economic data is released with a one- or two-month lag, our estimates for monthly growth will also lag real-time by two months (e.g., estimated growth in January will be published at the end of March). There are no adjustments to the model estimate except for those due to revisions to the underlying data.

For more information, please contact:
Brendon Ogmundson
Chief Economist
Direct: 604.742.2796
Mobile: 604.505.6793
Email: bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca